Istanbul Basaksehir host Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday. The German club are short priced favourites despite poor form on the road, where is the value in Turkey?
Istanbul Basaksehir have been inconsistent this season. The Turkish champions won three matches in a row before the international break, including an important 2-1 home win against Manchester United in the UEFA Champions League Okan Buruk’s side returned to action with a 3-2 defeat at Besiktas. Basaksehir were 2-0 down when Mehmet Topal was sent off, Fredrik Gulbrandsen coming off the bench to score two late goals. Istanbul Basaksehir suffered a 4-1 defeat at Man United in a tighter match than the score suggested. Deniz Türüç made it 3-1 in the 75th minute but they couldn’t get any closer. Basaksehir’s last match was a 3-3 home draw against Denizlispor. Buruk would have been fuming after a Gulbrandsen brace and Demba Ba strike established a 3-0 lead, his team conceding twice in added time. The home side will be missing right-back Junior Caicara to injury and midfielder Danijel Aleksic who tested positive for COVID-19. Central midfielder Mehmet Topal and striker Enzo Crivelli are both doubtful. Striker Fredrik Gulbrandsen is in fantastic form with five goals in his last four matches in all competitions. The Norwegian has managed that feat in 144 minutes of action.
Leipzig have been inconsistent since late October. Most of their troubles have been on the road where they have failed to win in their last four matches. Julian Nagelsmann’s side lost 5-0 at Manchester United and 1-0 loss at Borussia Monchengladbach in the Bundesliga. They returned home where they beat PSG 2-1 and Freiburg 3-0 with Ibrahima Konaté, Marcel Sabitzer and Angeliño on target. Leipzig then 1-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt before a 1-0 defeat against PSG in Paris. Leipzig’s last match was a 2-1 home win against promoted club Arminia Bielefeld. Goals to Angeliño and Christopher Nkunku established a 2-0 lead and they held on to stay second in the Bundesliga. RB Leipzig are without injured defenders Lukas Klostermann and Benjamin Henrichs. The versatile Konrad Laimer is also injured and attacker Hee-Chan Hwang is absent after testing positive for COVID-19. Angeliño has emerged as an unlikely source of goals. The Spanish wing-back has scored six goals and registered two assists in all competitions this season.
Istanbul Basaksehir have to win here or their European adventure will surely end in the final group match. Leipzig need a win to stay in contention for the knockout rounds. A draw might not be enough if PSG win in Manchester. Leipzig are under priced for the win and we propose Basaksehir’s recent run of high scoring matches will continue.
PREDICTION : LEIPZIG 2-1 WIN
ACCUMULATOR TIP : BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE